اهداف جامعه ایرانی چیست؟ « ما چگونه فکر می کنیم» و آنچه که در ایران مهم انگاشته می شود.

۱۳۸۶ آذر ۱۳, سه‌شنبه

Bush Says Iran Still a Danger Despite Report on Weapons

Published: December 4, 2007

WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 — President Bush said today that a new intelligence finding that Iran halted its nuclear weapons work in 2003 had not altered his sense that Iran remained a danger.

The world needed to view the report as “a warning signal,” not grounds for reassurance, he said, and the United States would not renounce the option of a military response.

“I have said Iran is dangerous,” Bush said a day after the release of the National Intelligence Estimate, representing the consensus of all 16 American spy agencies, “and the N.I.E. doesn’t do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world — quite the contrary.”

The report was welcomed by Iran today, which said it confirmed Tehran’s frequent protestations that its nuclear program has a purely civilian aim.

But it left some United States allies feeling uncertain about the way ahead. Key partners like France and Britain, in line with the administration response, said the report underscored that past concerns about Iran were well-founded.

But the assessment clearly complicated efforts to impose new sanctions on Iran at the United Nations Security Council, offering cover to Russia and China, two members most skeptical of sanctions.

Mr. Bush said that earlier in the day he had spoken at some length to President Vladimir Putin of Russia about Iran but declined to provide details.

“I think it is very important for the international community to recognize the fact that if Iran were to develop the knowledge that they could transfer to a clandestine program, it would create a danger for the world,” he said.

Reporters pressed the president to explain why as recently as October, he was saying that a nuclear-armed Iran could pose a risk of a “World War III.” But Bush said he had learned of the new intelligence findings on Iran, which have been in the works for months, only last week. When a reporter asked whether anyone in the intelligence community had urged him to step back from his tough warnings about Iran, he said, “No.”

Mr. Bush also denied that the United States’ credibility had suffered in light of the N.I.E. report, arguing instead that it reflected a more rigorous approach to intelligence.

“I want to compliment the intelligence community for their good work,” he said. “Right after the failure of intelligence in Iraq, we reformed the intelligence community.”

He said the new assessment was one result of those changes, adding, “The American people should have confidence that the reforms are working.”

The president insisted that the U.S. approach to Iran of “carrots and sticks,” he said had been vindicated by the fact that Iran had halted its weapons program.

“This is heartening news,” he said. “To me it’s a way for us to rally our partners.”

When another reporter offered the apologetic observation that the president looked “dispirited.” Mr. Bush rejected that with a laugh, accusing the journalist of practicing “Psychology 101.”

In Tehran, Iran welcomed what it said was the United States decision to “correct” its claim of an active Iranian nuclear weapons program, The Associated Press reported.

Manouchehr Mottaki, the foreign minister, said it was natural that Tehran would welcome “countries that correct their views realistically, which in the past had questions and ambiguities” about Iranian nuclear activities.

Germany, one of the three West European governments involved in diplomacy with Iran, seemed to cast the American assessment in the most positive light. The finding, said a spokesman for the foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, demonstrated that the dual-track approach “to give incentives on the one hand and impose punitive measures at the Security Council was the right approach.”

In London, a spokesman for Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that Britain still saw a risk of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, adding, “in overall terms the government believes that the report confirms we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons.”

France said that its position in favor of tighter sanctions had not changed, Reuters reported from Paris. “Our position remains unchanged,” Pascale Andreani, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said. “It appears that Iran is not respecting its international obligations. We must keep up the pressure on Iran.”

The Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, said that the report only strengthened the need for the international community to tighten sanctions so that Iran will not be able to produce nuclear weapons, The Jerusalem Post reported.

Mr. Olmert said that the N.I.E. assessment was brought up during his meetings with Washington officials following the Middle East Peace conference in Annapolis, Md., last week.

Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting from Washington and Elaine Sciolino from Paris.

Iran expels Canadian ambassador from Tehran

Last Updated: Monday, December 3, 2007 | 11:34 PM ET

Canada's ambassador to Iran has been expelled from Tehran, Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier said in a news release Monday evening.

The expulsion of Ambassador John Mundy is believed to have stemmed from the two countries not being able to come to an agreement over an exchange of ambassador candidates, he said.

"Canada regrets the decision of the Government of Iran to order our ambassador to leave Tehran, which is entirely unjustifiable," Bernier said in the release.

"We stand behind our ambassador, who has performed his diplomatic duties with professionalism and dedication."

Mundy, arrived in Tehran last spring but the Iranian government has never allowed him to present his credentials to officially assume the role of ambassador.

The Canadian embassy in Iran will be headed by Canada's chargé d'affaires in the meantime. Both countries will continue to maintain embassies in the respective capitals and conduct normal operations, he said.

"As always, Canada remains prepared to receive an Iranian ambassador provided a suitable candidate is presented," he said.

A spokesperson in the department said it's unlikely this latest move will have much affect on relations between the two countries, as they are already very limited.

Canada and Iran have been at odds over matters like human rights, Tehran's nuclear program and the death of Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi, who died while in Iranian custody.

۱۳۸۶ آذر ۱۲, دوشنبه

U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003

Story Highlights
  • Declassified summary of intelligence estimate on Iran's nuclear work released
  • Estimate says Tehran is "less determined to develop nuclear weapons"
  • Report: Iran unlikely to have enough material for nuclear bomb until 2010
  • But White House official says Iran remains a threat

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.

art.natanz.satellite.dglobe.jpg

A file satellite image shows Iranian nuclear facilities.

A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was "determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure."

But the latest report says Iran -- which declared its ability to produced enriched uranium for a civilian energy program in 2006 -- could reverse that decision and eventually produce a nuclear weapon if it wanted to do so.

Enriched uranium at low concentrations can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, but much higher concentrations are needed to yield a nuclear explosion.

"We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely," the report says. A more likely time frame for that production is between 2010 and 2015, it concludes.

Iran has insisted its nuclear program is strictly aimed at producing electricity, and the country has refused the U.N. Security Council's demand to halt its enrichment program.

Monday's report represents the consensus of U.S. intelligence agencies. It suggests that a combination of "threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways," could persuade the Iranian leadership to continue its suspension of nuclear weapons research.

Available intelligence suggests the Iranian leadership is guided "by a cost-benefit approach," not a headlong rush to develop a bomb, the report concludes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, has reported that Iran is cooperating with inspectors by providing access to declared nuclear material, documents and facilities. However, the agency also said Iran is withholding information in other areas, and as a result, the IAEA's knowledge about the status of the program is "diminishing."

Iran says its uranium enrichment work is allowed under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Security Council has passed two rounds of sanctions against Tehran, but Washington missed its goal of reaching consensus on tighter restrictions by the end of November, the State Department said last week.

U.S. National Security adviser Stephen Hadley expressed hope after Monday's announcement, but he said Iran remains a serious threat.

"The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically -- without the use of force -- as the administration has been trying to do," Hadley said in a statement.

"But the intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."

The report comes amid widespread accusations that the Bush administration is attempting to maneuver the United States into a conflict with Iran, which it accuses of meddling in the war in Iraq. In October, the United States designated elements of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as supporters of terrorism.

NIEs examine current capabilities and vulnerabilities and, perhaps more importantly, consider future developments. Policymakers usually request the estimates, but the intelligence community also can initiate them