اهداف جامعه ایرانی چیست؟ « ما چگونه فکر می کنیم» و آنچه که در ایران مهم انگاشته می شود.

۱۳۸۶ خرداد ۸, سه‌شنبه

اعتراض نماينده تبريز به برخورد با فعالان قومی


تبريز
طی نا آراميهای سال گذشته در شهرهای ترک نشين چند نفر جان خود را از دست دادند
نماينده تبريز در مجلس شورای اسلامی ايران در قالب طرح سؤال از وزيران کشور و اطلاعات، به بازداشت شماری از فعالان حقوق قومی در استانهای آذربايجان شرقی و غربی، اردبيل و قم اعتراض کرد.

آن گونه که در سؤالات اکبر اعلمی، نماينده تبريز در مجلس مطرح شده، "جمع کثيری" از ترک زبانان ايران که برای کسب حقوقی همچون، تدريس زبان ترکی در مدارس فعاليت می کرده اند بازداشت و مورد "هتک حرمت" قرار گرفته اند و به اجبار از آنان شهادت، اعتراف يا سوگند گرفته شده است.

بنابر سؤالات آقای اعلمی، شماری از بازداشت شدگان فرهنگی بوده اند.

نماينده تبريز از وزيران اطلاعات و کشور پرسيده: " آیا اشخاص را به صرف داشتن عقیده ‌ای یا ابراز عشق و علاقه نسبت به زبان و تاریخ و فرهنگ و علائق قومی خود و تأکید و اصرار بر لزوم اجرایی شدن اصول پانزده و نوزده قانون اساسی می ‌توان مورد تعرض و مؤاخذه قرار داد"؟

بنابر اصل پانزدهم قانون اساسی، استفاده از زبانهای محلی و قومی در مطبوعات و رسانه ‏های گروهی و تدریس ادبیات آنها در مدارس در کنار زبان فارسی آزاد است و بنابر اصل نوزدهم، مردم ایران از هر قوم و قبیله که باشند از حقوق مساوی برخوردارند.

اکبر اعلمی همچنين در سؤالات خود خبر داده که "افرادی که برای استیفای حقوق خود و ارائه گزارش عملکرد غیرقانونی برخی از عوامل امنیتی و انتظامی" با نماینده خود در مجلس تماس برقرار می کنند مورد تهدید قرار می گيرند و از تماس با نماينده منع می شوند یا اينکه تحت تعقیب قرار می گيرند.

سؤالات نماينده تبريز در شرايطی مطرح می شود که در تبريز و برخی ديگر از شهرها تجمعاتی به مناسبت سالگرد تظاهرات اعتراضی مردم مناطق ترک نشين ايران به راه افتاده و پيش از برگزاری اين تجمعات، عده ای که مردم را به شرکت در اين تجمعات دعوت می کردند بازداشت شده بودند.

اکبر اعلمی پرسيده: "آیا به نام حفظ استقلال و تمامیت ارضی کشور می‌ توان حقوق و آزادیهای مشروع نظیر: آزادی بیان، آزادی عقیده، آزادی تشکیل اجتماعات و شرکت در راهپیماییهای بدون حمل سلاح یا شرکت در جمعیتها و انجمنهای صنفی و حق استفاده از مفاد اصل پانزده قانون اساسی را از افراد سلب کرد"؟

وی ادامه داده: "آیا می ‌توان به حیثیت، حقوق، مسکن و شغل اشخاصی که خواهان استفاده از حقوق و آزادیهای مذکورند، تعرض کرد و آیا بدون در نظر گرفتن ترتیبات قانونی می توان افراد را دستگیر و بازداشت کرد و اساساً قبل از اینکه فردی مرتکب اعمال مغایر با قوانین موضوعه شود، آیا می ‌توان مرتکب قصاص قبل از جنایت شده، او را دستگیر و بازداشت کرد یا برای مدتی از حقوق اجتماعی ‌اش محروم ساخت؟"

حرکت اعتراض آميز شهرهای ترک نشين ايران که در روزهای اخير تجمعاتی به مناسبت سالگرد آن برگزار شده، در پی چاپ کاريکاتوری در صفحه کودک و نوجوان ضميمه جمعه های روزنامه دولتی ايران به راه افتاد که بسياری از ترک زبانان ايران آن را توهين به خود تلقی کردند.

اين حرکت اعتراض آميز در آغاز مورد حمايت دولت قرار گرفت؛ روزنامه ايران چند ماه توقيف شد، مديريت و بخش عمده ای از تحريريه آن تغيير پيدا کرد و کاريکاتوريست و سردبير ضميمه هفتگی ايران (ايران جمعه) مدتی را در بازداشت گذراندند.

اما با وجود اين اقدامات تظاهرات در شهرهای ترک نشين ادامه پيدا کرد و ادامه اين حرکت مورد محکوميت دولت قرار گرفت و باعث مداخله نيروهای انتظامی و امنيتی و به خشونت کشيده شدن تظاهرات گرديد که در نتيجه چند نفر طی درگيريها جان خود را از دست دادند و خسارات گسترده ای به اماکن عمومی و ادارات دولتی وارد آمد.

۱۳۸۶ خرداد ۷, دوشنبه

Iran Stand-Off and the 'Freeze-Freeze' Solution

DR. FATIMA SHAHNAZ reviews US versus Iran conflict on nuclear issue and says that US is under increased pressure to accept the path of negotiations. Further, it is not in a position to open a new war front in Iran.

Europe finds itself cornered in the stalemate between Washington and Tehran over what is now visibly a 'lose-lose' game after Iran's defiance of two U.N. Security Council Resolutions on the suspension of its uranium enrichment programme. The challenge facing Europe, as world powers meet in Berlin this week to debate new punitive measures against Iran's nuclear program is to 'think outside the box.'
This, of course, means distancing itself from Washington's pressure tactics, which forced Europe into compromising Iran in the earlier Security Council votes. Now, with the failure of the Security Council and financial sanctions imposed unilaterally by the U.S., the ground realities have sunk in: Since Iran is far from softening its position and suspending its nuclear programme, the EU sees the outcome can only be a 'lose-lose' situation. What is now needed for the West is a desperate face-saving device, which Europe strives to embody considering the high stakes involved, and the looming threat of another protracted war in the region led by the neo-con administration in Washington in the region.
Even though the prospects of the war seem to flounder with the US Congress and legislators (plus military brass and even Republicans in the President's Party) in tenterhooks over neo-con belligerence toward Iran, the hallmark of the Bush administration has been its wars of aggression. But Iran continues, in the face of global isolation, to defy the American Goliath. U.S. financial sanctions have failed to force Tehran into compromise and the Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stressed the Islamic Republic's stance by stating earlier this week that Tehran was ready to “pay the price” by continuing its nuclear programme.

US MILITARY MANOEUVRES IN PERSIAN GULF
Some 'changes of the guard' have taken place in the Persian Gulf area in the U.S. fleet posted there. Two American aircraft carriers – the Dwight D. Eisenhower and cruiser Anzio left the 5th Fleet last Friday, passing through the Suez Canal and ending their mission begun seven months back with combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan; but the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group is en route to the region to join the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group, operating in the area since February, deployed to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle also left the Persian Gulf area. While the military configurations realign, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney left on May 8 on a six-day tour of four key Middle East countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt.
According to senior American intelligence sources in Washington and the region, the main focus of Cheney's agenda would be a military confrontation with Iran. The Americans calculate on playing the sectarian card, the Shia-Sunni fractiousness rehearsed in Iraq; they also speculate that all four countries, leading Sunni allies of the United States, would submit to Washington's pressure-tactics to ally with Israel. Since Cheney's visit to Riyadh in November 2006, the Vice President and National Security Council Middle East director Elliot Abrams have been forming a regional military and political coalition against Iran. This seems like lame pipedreams considering the anti-Americanism and anti-Israeli sentiments that unite the Islamic world.

ISRAELI WAR-GAMES
However, failing to get Arab support, and due to the vast opposition to the Bush policies within the American military, diplomatic and intelligence networks, according to one Arab analyst Cheney, will resort to using the Israeli proxy to launch an attack (if possible) on Iran, for refusing to shut down its nuclear enrichment programme. Israel would trigger the ignominious “9/11” factor, which was used to push the American government and people into launching attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. In brief, this would be the case of the 'runaway ally'. The reasoning behind this is that an Israeli strike against Iran would push the Congress and public into a showdown with Iran since the United States would step in to support Israel.
While the war-drive has dampened somewhat in the U.S. because of the Iraq disaster, some sources confirm preparations for a war-scenario based on recent developments. For instance, in recent months the Bush administration has stepped up its provision to Israel of smart bombs and the latest generation of Patriot anti-missile batteries.
The Israeli war-rhetoric has also escalated. In an interview with the German magazine Focus (April 28) Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned that Israel had the capacity to launch 1,000 cruise missile strikes against Iranian targets within a ten-day period.
A month ago, Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli Prime Minister, was in Washington for private meetings with Cheney. In a speech addressing the annual convention of the Jewish lobby group, AIPAC, he equated Iran with Nazi Germany in 1938, promising that Israel would strike Iran before the Islamic Republic acquired nuclear weapon-building capability. Netanyahu, a right-wing war-hawk and favourite of the neo-cons, has intensified his campaign of a no-confidence drive in the Knesset to unseat Olmert after the Winograd Commission Interim report made strong criticism of the Olmert government's fiasco in the Lebanon war in summer 2006. Netanyahu is five votes short of the 61 needed to replace Olmert, and according to Israeli polls, his right-wing led coalition would win if early elections were to be held.

EUROPE'S STALEMATE
In summer 2006, European diplomats feared an escalation of the Iranian nuclear crisis following Security Council sanctions. Since then, Iran has defied two Chapter VII U.N. Security Council Resolutions to suspend its uranium enrichment programme and has further retaliated by cutting back on cooperation with the IAEA. The end result of the Security Council measures has, indeed, made both parties entrench their positions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, “What has been the result of three (UN) Security Council resolutions, two introducing sanctions? Iran has quickened the pace of its peaceful activities and reduced its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency … This can go on, but the result is an escalation of the crisis.”
Further, Iran has proceeded to an expansion of its nuclear programme since the new centrifuges installed can only strengthen Tehran's bargaining power. Also, according to non-proliferation experts, the reality is that Iran will finally achieve the necessary technology necessary, which would dispel any notions of compromise.
These prospects foster the lose-lose situation the West fears most. An 'out of the box' solution is needed for Europe to attempt to end the stand-off. EU High Representative for the Common Foreign Security Policy Javier Solana has publicly called for direct U.S. Iran talks. Moreover, he has stressed that reform of the non proliferation treaty is essential as the case of Iran cannot be isolated from this broader issue. The Europeans have also floated the idea of an international enrichment consortium in Iran, plus other prospects. Tehran's former negotiations with Europe (with suspension of enrichment) have emboldened its stand that the West must also commit to solutions that would not make suspension permanent.

THE “FREEZE FOR FREEZE” SOLUTION
There have been two phases in Iran's position vis-à-vis Europe: prior negotiations led Tehran to believe that “objective criteria” would allow Iran to exercise its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, provided the necessary guarantees certifying its programme was strictly civilian.
But as European bias tilted in favour of Washington, which demanded that acceptable criteria would make Iran suspend uranium enrichment altogether, Tehran found itself both in a bind and compromised by the EU. Now, Tehran continues to reject the call for suspension of any framework that deprives Iran of its uranium production. The alternative Europe faces in the current gridlock between Washington and Tehran is to revive an idea floated last summer which was the “freeze-for-freeze” solution. This required both sides to freeze their activities from any further development without stopping them altogether. Iran would then be allowed to 'freeze' its programme without suspending it, meaning it could continue its current nuclear development without expanding the programme by adding new centrifuges.
Meanwhile, Washington would be pacified since the U.N. sanctions against Iran would remain intact, as it was difficult for the U.S. to get the UNSC to take the sanctions route. This course would not oblige Washington to confront Russian and Chinese resistance to new sanctions. However, the caveat to this solution would be that the Security Council measures would also be frozen under the 'freeze-for-freeze' directive. While still at its nascent stage, promoters of the 'freeze-for-freeze' concept believe that war-fatigue may eventually set in with opposition against Bush policies, and another lose-lose situation in Southwest Asia.

Iran gas price hike said shows weakness

By SEBASTIAN ABBOT, Associated Press Writer Mon May 28,

CAIRO, Egypt - Iran's decision to raise gasoline prices has thrown new light on one of its most entrenched problems — the danger a vulnerable, subsidized economy poses for a country under international pressure over its nuclear program.

Experts warn of the popular backlash that other countries have faced when dealing with the same need to raise long-subsidized staple prices, including in Indonesia which saw a wave of protests in 2005. At the same time, they doubt the 25 percent price hike imposed last week on Iran's gasoline will do much, on its own, to solve the country's underlying economic problems.

Even after Tuesday's decision to raise gasoline prices from the equivalent of 30 cents a gallon to 38 cents a gallon, Iran has some of the lowest gas prices in the world, and fuel remains cheaper than drinking water. Those prices have led to unnaturally high demand and have saddled the government with fuel subsidies that cost billions of dollars a year.

The demand also forces Iran to import more than half the gasoline it consumes because it lacks enough refinery capacity up — a glaring vulnerability as the U.S. and its allies look for pressure-points in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

"The gasoline import issue is the Achilles heel for Iran," said Amy Jaffe, an energy expert at Rice University's U.S.-based James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. "It shows the vulnerability of their economy."

Consistently high oil prices over the past few years have helped the economy grow more than 4 percent annually and left Iran awash in petroleum money, masking the economy's underlying weakness. But the country lacks the investment it needs to reverse its falling oil production because billions of dollars are spent instead on subsidies for fuel, food, paper, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals and other products.

Outside experts estimate that Iranian energy subsidies alone, including gasoline and natural gas, amount to $30 billion, or 15 percent of the country's entire economy, and total subsidies are close to twice that figure.

Conservatives in Iran's parliament, especially those aligned with the country's national oil company, have long pushed for higher gasoline prices.

There has been sharp criticism of the government for withdrawing billions of dollars to pay for domestic expenditures, like the subsidies, from a fund it set up in 2000 to hedge against a future downturn in oil prices and invest in the energy sector.

"They have so much more revenue than they ever thought they would have," said Jaffe. "Yet at $70 per barrel, they were taking money out of the oil stabilization fund, not putting it in it. That's unsustainable."

Siphoning off this money in the current climate leaves the country vulnerable if oil prices fall and robs the oil sector of productive investment. Investment from outside Iran is also increasingly rare, as the U.S. pressures foreign oil companies not to do business in Iran.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has promised to share Iran's oil wealth with the nation's poor, has opposed past attempts to increase gasoline prices and cut demand.

"He doesn't want to be the man who has to drink this poison," said Saeed Laylaz, a prominent Iranian analyst.

Ahmadinejad made it clear this time that parliament had forced him to agree to the latest increase, Laylaz noted. The president has also faced increasing domestic political pressure over his defiant stand on the country's nuclear program.

But Frank Verrastro, an oil analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the international pressure could also give Ahmadinejad cover to enact unpopular measures.

"If as a result of increasing prices, you reduce demand and import reliance, then it makes you less vulnerable," he said. "It's unpopular, but if you can sell it as being under siege by foreign threats, you can mask the pain a bit."

So far, response in Iran has been fairly muted; prices weren't raised enough to reduce demand, Jaffe said.

Narsi Ghorban, an independent energy consultant based in Tehran, said if planned rationing goes into effect, that could have much more impact. The plan would allow consumers to use "smart cards" to purchase a set amount of gasoline at the current subsidized price, and any additional quantity at a much higher price.

But Laylaz said the ration plan was simply creating a black market in "smart cards," further enabling those close to the government to enrich themselves at the expense of the poor, in an economy considered full of corruption and cronyism.

"The mismanagement of the economy hurts Iran more than any international sanctions," he said